This is the third installment of my ongoing series Fantasy Hot List, to discuss the players that are not necessarily at the absolute top of most draft boards but could conceivably provide outstanding value for your fantasy football squad.
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Kansas City Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe is no secret to NFL fans, he has had two solid if not outstanding years to begin his career. He was a candidate for Rookie of the Year in '07 by leading all rookie receivers in receptions, and he built upon that last year by surpassing the 1,000 yard mark for the first time, while ranking 10th in the NFL in receptions.
Two things happened to the Chiefs this offseason that tell me he may be primed for superstar status: Tony Gonzalez was traded to the Falcons, and KC hired Todd Haley to be their head coach. The first point is self evident, as 10-time Pro Bowler Gonzalez is arguably the best pass catching tight end in NFL history, as well as being the Chiefs MVP for over a decade. Obviously, this means Bowe will be getting more touches. Just how many more we will have to wait and see.
The second point is less obvious. As a die hard Arizona Cardinals fan, I have been following the improvement of Larry Fitzgerald over the years, and can tell you without a doubt one of the keys to his success has come from Haley's tutelage. Fitz has been a stud since his college days, but Haley, who comes from the Bill Parcells school of yelling, err umm I mean motivation, helped the chosen one sharpen his work ethic and his entire approach to his career. Larry's playoff and Super Bowl performances last year are proof, the guy played off the charts in every aspect and was unstoppable, and I believe that is just the beginning. Now Fitzgerald is running his own offseason workout program, to give you an indication of how far reaching Haley's influence has been. It might take awhile to completely buy in to Haley's approach, but I believe even a Haley 101 course, combined with the Chiefs needing to lean heavily on Dwayne Bowe this season makes him a very attractive target in your fantasy drafts.
One final note. A case could be made that a third offseason event could help propel Bowe's statistical output, the Chiefs' signing of Matt Cassel to be their #1 quarterback. It is possible that this could also be a boost to his success, however I am not sold on Cassel just yet. He had a great year last year for a very talented team, but honestly I am more impressed with now backup QB Tyler Thigpen, and think he has the talent to push for playing time eventually, or outplay him altogether if he comes in for an injured Cassel. That aside, remember, Bowe has put up great numbers with three different QBs, so I am not convinced it matters who is throwing it to him.
This is the second installment in my ongoing series called Fantasy Hot List, to discuss the players that are not necessarily at the absolute top of most draft boards but could conceivably provide outstanding value for your fantasy football squad.
.....................Arizona Cardinals running back Tim Hightower played college ball at the University of Richmond, not exactly a college football powerhouse. Despite having over 2,000 total yards and 23 TDs in his senior season, he was not even invited to the NFL Scouting Combine. The Combine is essentially an annual job fair for prospective new players, i.e. for players that have a chance of making the pros. Its possible he would have gone undrafted but the savvy scouts and coaches for the Cardinals graded him highly and drafted him in the fifth round last year. I had to search high and low to find people that had even heard of him before the season started.By most standards, Hightower had a fantastic rookie year. In the regular season he totaled 636 yards from the line of scrimmage including 10 TDs and 34 receptions, and an additional 3 TDs in the postseason. He was named the starting RB over a potential Hall of Famer Edgerrin James for a portion of the season. Hightower was the go to back for converting in short yardage situations, and was largely successful. Most importantly, in crunch time, he was money. He got the extra yard when the team needed him to most over and over again throughout the season, none more important than the 4th and 1 at midfield he converted to continue the game winning drive of the NFC Championship Game to lift the Arizona Cardinals to their first ever Super Bowl. Oh and did I mention that he was the one who went on to score that winning touchdown?Some Fantasy Football experts will point to his meager 2.8 yards per carry last season and say he isn't a starting caliber RB, and that that is why Arizona drafted Chris "Beanie" Wells with their first pick in the draft, surmising that Hightower's value is minimal. Not so fast, if you look a little deeper you can see that NO ONE in the Cardinal uniform put up gawdy numbers on a team that ranked DEAD LAST in rushing yards per game. Also, factor in how many times Hightower was given the ball in short yardage situations where getting 2 yards was a victory. Finally, as good as Wells might turn out to be, remember, head coach Ken Whisenhunt's M.O. is to bring along players slowly. Case in point, budding superstar Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie didn't even start until late in the season last year.
Remember these things about Tim Hightower: he was an integral part of the Cardinals 2009 NFC Champion team, he is currently #1 on the depth chart for one of the top scoring teams in the NFL, and he has shed 15 pounds in his second offseason working in highly regarded trainer John Lott's strength and conditioning program. Whats not to like? A lot of fantasy owners have already written him off because of #1 pick Wells.
Therefore I believe Tim Hightower is in a great position to build upon an outstanding rookie campaign and could be a steal in your fantasy draft so keep an eye on him.
For those that play fantasy football, sure, its only July...which may seem too early to get all jacked up on the coming season. But in reality it means pundits from all over the place will start bombarding us soon, and fantasy drafts are only one month away. I'll have an ongoing series called Fantasy Hot List, to discuss the players that are not necessarily at the absolute top of most draft boards but could conceivably provide outstanding value for your fantasy football squad.
Let me start with running backs. Who is at the top of your draft board at RB? Let me guess, Adrian Peterson? Brian Westbrook? Please don't tell me it is LaDainian Tomlinson. Well I'll be honest, I don't even construct a draft board of my own, I like to play fantasy football by feel. And I am feeling DeAngelo Williams.
The tear that he went on last year was flat out ridiculous. It wasn't just the 5.5 yard average on nearly 300 carries, 1,500+ yards and 20 total TDs he amassed, it was the way he was running. The kind of running with a purpose associated with some of the greats such as my favorite RB of all time, Walter Payton. There is something in his training or his tutelage or his own mental preparedness that took his game to a whole new level last year, the level of having the elusive "it". He had "it" and he was hitting on all cylinders.
When determining his draft stock the fantasy gurus will point out that he has to share the load with Jonathan Stewart, and it is a fair point. Stewart will take some of his TDs and may get 10-15 touches a game. It is also possible Stewart gets more involved this year than last, he is quite a talent himself. However the Carolina Panthers are a run heavy offense, so I don't think it will matter much. Coaches want to win, and they give the ball to their best play makers. DeAngelo Williams' eye opening performances last year were no mirage, and he will continue to blossom.
Rabid NFL fans like myself have to play the waiting game in mid to late summer until the appetizers are prepared. We have to nibble on mostly useless predictions and top ten lists, and some even start planning their fantasy football campaigns while we wait, and wait some more, for the first NFL game action that is preseason football. Desperate for some intellectual discussion on my favorite professional sport, I write. Here are some random musings to start with.Bad move of the off season: Bills signing Terrell Owens. A proven cancer of the locker room, he is too expensive for his aging body and he drops too many passes. Over rated player.Perpetually best off season movers: New England Patriots. They do this year in and year out, sign the cream of the crop aging former stars at a bargain rate and utilize them as above average role players. You mean to tell me that the Patriots added Joey Galloway, Fred Taylor, Leigh Bodden and Shawn Springs in free agency alone? Then they deftly jockeyed and traded around to nab 12 players via the draft and set themselves up nicely for future drafts? This should be embarrassing to the rest of the league. In the least, it is a clinic on how to run a football team.You heard it here first. Tyler Thigpen should be starting over Matt Cassel in Kansas City. Dude has an arm, and is very athletic out of the pocket. I hope to see him getting some playing time this year. Anyone from the powerhouse of Coastal Carolina gets my vote!
After a long hiatus I am back on blogger. Every July I get a serious case of NFL fever, so I hope to dive back in to help feed my obsession. Look for more posts soon, and spread the word about my blog if you find it entertaining.
Season record straight up: 51-25
For the first 59:58 of this past Monday Night Football Bills/Cowboys match up I thought I was a football forecasting genius. Coming off a week where I had selected the Arizona Cardinals to upend the then undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers when most people in America gave them absolutely no chance to win, I was feeling pretty good. Then during the Bills game I was patting myself on the back and cheering on the underdog as they were dominating a team no one gave them a chance to beat. Unfortunately, this game was eerily reminiscent of last year's Cardinals/Bears Monday Night Football debacle, and I have to believe even with 10 more turnovers in their favor the Bills still would have lost. When you are a losing team, until they turn the corner the sad reality is that finding a way to lose comes more naturally than finding a way to win. Still, there were a lot of positives to come away with. Despite the laundry list of injured players particularly on defense, the Bills young inexperienced unit was mostly swarming, aggressive and effective. Trent Edwards only had only one big mistake the entire game in his first NFL start, albeit a crucial rookie QB INT that helped the Cowboys stay undefeated. I know it may seem lame to blame the coaches in defeat, but I can't help but point out that the Bills did nothing to take the pressure off of Edwards, if they had allowed him to throw deep to Lee Evans even just a few times, it would have made them account for a deep ball, which would have equated to less pressure in the pocket for Edwards and more running room for Marshawn Lynch. Which brings me to my criticism of Dick Jauron, who always seems to play things just one degree too conservative in my opinion. If he hadn't played it so close to the vest the Bills could have gotten more than 3 points out of their offense and won that game.
When I take a glance at this week's games there is something amiss: there really just isn't a huge underdog that I think will pull it off this time. So as boring as it is, here are my ho-hum picks for Week 6.
Tennessee @Tampa Bay: could be a rebound game for the Bucs but I like the Titans defense, they are smothering. Titans.
Minnesota@Chicago: teams coming off a bye week are tough, and I like Minnesota's defense, but I think the Packers helped open the Bears' can of worms. Bears.
Houston@Jacksonville: Jags are a strange team because home field isn't much of an advantage for them, much like the Panthers they seem to do just as well if not better on the road. Still, speaking of smothering defense, I don't see Houston moving the ball as well as they have this time around. Jaguars.
Miami@Cleveland: toss up, really it is. I'll take Miami to win their first game of the season ignited by Cleo Lemon at QB, because you can pass on Cleveland. Dolphins.
St Louis@Baltimore: Baltimore is one of the toughest stadiums to win in if you are not a Raven, and the Rams are still banged up. Ravens.
Washington@Green Bay: Ordinarily I wouldn't pick the Packers to lose two in a row at Lambeau Field, but the Redskins are heating up and their defense is improving ever week. Redskins.
Cincinnati@Kansas City: You can never count out Cincy when they have Carson Palmer on the roster, but Larry Johnson is about to ignite. Chiefs.
Philadelphia@NY Jets: I like Donovan McNabb coming off a bye week, Eagles.
Carolina@Arizona: Much like Cincy with Palmer, you can never count out the Panthers because of Steve Smith, but on paper, Cardinals fans are licking their chops about this game. With first string QB Jake Delhomme on IR and gone for the year, the confidence-battered backup David Carr possibly also missing the game with a bad back, and undrafted rookie QB Matt Moore and 43-year old Vinny Testaverde taking all the snaps in practice this week, this could be Arizona's first victory with a large margin all season, you'd think right? This fan though is actually more worried about the impact that either a fresh faced kid with no game tape to plan for, or a veteran with a strong arm, both playing with nothing to lose but a lot to prove, will make on this game. Moore threw 2 passes in his first NFL action last week. One of them was a 43-yard completion. With Steve Smith's sick athleticism, I'm sure one of these guys can get him the ball in space and do some damage. Still, I'm clinging to the idea that the Cards are finally ready to keep building on their confidence, and heres to hoping they can maintain the defensive intensity that keeps QB's on the run, and keeps their '07 record at home flawless. Cardinals.
Oakland@San Diego: Oakland is in first place but the Chargers found their mojo. Chargers.
New England@Dallas: New England is robotic. Patriots.
New Orleans@Seattle: The Seahawks are embarassed by last week's shutout at Pittsburgh. Seahawks.
NY Giants@Atlanta: Giants are playing good ball right now. Giants.
Green Bay blew that game vs the Bears and in the process may have helped Chicago become a factor again this season. Still, the Bears' Brian Griese played well enough not to lose, and Greg Olsen may start to become a serious weapon for this offense. Great speed, size and hands. I think I actually saw one run by Cedric Benson that was determined, maybe he is starting to feel it finally. For the Pack, no worries fans its one loss. James Jones' two costly fumbles could prove to be just the learning experience the rookie needs to become an even more focused and up and coming player. DeShawn Wynn and Vernand Morency again displayed flashes of hard nosed running which bodes well for a struggling rushing attack.
San Diego also looks revived thanks to a surprisingly bad Broncos team. Maybe Denver can resuscitate itself with a bye this week? Their defense is grossly underperforming making mistakes not typical of a Mike Shanahan coached team. The Chargers got untracked though which could turn their season completely around if they can find a way to build on the momentum.
The Ravens took care of business and pulled themselves back up to 3-2, but I still think they are too weak to make a playoff run. The 49ers need an offensive coordinator in the worst way, its too bad because their defense is playing well. They probably will get Vernon Davis back next game which has to help.
Honestly I thought the Buccaneers would have made the loss to to the Colts a lot closer. Maybe their defense isn't all the way back to the form it had three or four years ago, then again most defenses look worse against the Colts, who just continue to roll along even without stars in the lineup.
Don't look now but America's favorite team to bash, the Arizona Cardinals are in first place in the NFC West. Sure they allowed the struggling Rams thirty one points, but forget the stats on this one. The Cardinals defense again generated critical turnovers at the right times, and the Cards found a way to win playing arguably their worst game of the season beating a division rival in their house. They won their second game in a row without their best player Anquan Boldin, and won the type of game that the old Cardinals always lost. ALWAYS. Not to be overlooked, the ball is bouncing Arizona's way which is critical for teams that are turning the corner. Two controversial calls by the referees ended up as two Cardinal touchdowns. The bigger story is losing Matt Leinart for the year with a broken collarbone. He wasn't performing nearly as poorly as the media painted it, rather he was integral to the Cardinals success in each game. Picking up under appreciated Tim Rattay to back up Kurt Warner was the right choice, but losing Leinart is no small loss.
Somehow without his main weapons on offense Matt Schaub continues to drive the Texans' impressive start. They barely eeked out the win thanks to a monster game by kicker Kris Brown, and the Dolphins lost the game and Trent Green to yet another concussion. Cleo Lemon doesn't strike fear into the opponent but who knows, maybe he can provide the spark this team needs to win their first game. Travis Johnson, I'm with you, any player who hits my knee with their helmet on a bad excuse for a block deserves to be yelled at. Green could have ended Johnson's career with that bad decision and wussy block. The reason so many people were up in arms about Johnson's reaction is because Green was knocked unconscious, if Green had not been hurt on the play then I think we would be hearing a lot more open support for Johnson, not the other way around.
The Lions are very inconsistent an offense and I'm not sure their defense is solid enough to get them into the playoffs. The Redskins look better every week on both sides of the ball. A stingy defense and rising star Jason Campbell are making for Washington's first genuinely good team in years.
The Titans defense is also solid and improving each game, ending Joey Harrington's two game streak of good play. Atlanta, Byron Leftwich is not the answer. I said it before the season even started the answer was Aaron Brooks, now for this season its too late.
The Steelers bounced right back with another dominating performance over the question mark that is Seattle. Losing career Seahawk and Pro Bowl fullback Mack Strong is a huge loss as he has paved the way for all of Shaun Alexander's success.
Chad Pennington may be at the end of the road now that his moxy has worn off. Man was I wrong about the Giants, I had them dead in the water with Tom Coughlin fired mid-season. This team looks to be gaining momentum.
Yeah the Panthers won on a last second field goal but the future for both Carolina and New Orleans this season is bleak. Jake Delhomme on IR, backup David Carr may miss time with an aching back, untested rookie Matt Moore may start this week with recently signed 43-year old Vinny Testaverde backing him up. There are red flags and then there are big red flags, using Testaverde's signing as a barometer for this team I'd have to say that is a big red flag.
The Patriots continued to dominate and the Browns proved while they are improved they are not yet good, just okay.
I underestimated Jacksonville before the Kansas City game but that was an impressive win. They held the Chiefs scoreless until the final play of the game, and Maurice Jones-Drew got back on track with some highlight reel runs. You have to hand it to coach Jack Del Rio for pulling the plug on Leftwich when he did, he was right, David Garrard was by far and away the better option. I smell playoffs.
When I look at this week's matchups there are only two games that can qualify as huge upsets if the weaker team prevails, if Cleveland upends New England or if Buffalo beats Dallas. As someone who frequently pulls for the underdog, I am almost obligated to hand pick one of these shockers.
Cleveland @ New England. The Patriots are playing like a machine, at this point they do look unstoppable. Still, how many teams have had this look before? There is at least one every single year, the Chargers were the best team in the regular season last year and look what happened to them. So as impressed as I am, its ridiculous to crown them Super Bowl champs just yet. There are too many things that need to go right in each and every game to guarantee anything about what the future may hold. The Browns have a QB, and its not Brady Quinn. Derek Anderson has performed admirably though inconsistently, and you'd think Romeo Crennel has enough knowledge of the Patriots offense to put up a good fight. This is the best team the Browns have fielded in years if only because they know how to score. The problem is the Browns don't have enough playmakers on defense to execute even the most brilliant game plan. With the Patriots' home field advantage and their #1 ranked defense getting captain Rodney Harrison back from suspension, edge Patriots.
Feature Game of the Week and Upset Special -
Dallas @ Buffalo. This is a real tough upset pick to call because it is truly on paper a tremendous mismatch. We all know how well Dallas and Tony Romo are playing, they are leading the league in offense. Terrell Owens has regained his form, Jason Witten is a stud TE and superstar Marion Barber is in my opinion running better than any RB in the league right now. Their defense is loaded with talent and it seems like it is all coming together, improving every game. So here you have the #1 offense going up against the worst ranked defense. What I like about the Bills chances starts with Trent Edwards. This kid was poised in a collapsing pocket all game long last week, granted it was vs a mediocre Jets defense, but this was his first NFL start and he managed 22 completions out of 28 attempts. The reason was because every ball he threw was right on the money. Now, you have to believe the 'Boys will be bringing heavy pressure trying to rattle the rookie, but he looked un-rattleable enough to me, I think he can handle it. If they bring the pressure that opens up the door for Marshawn Lynch on draw plays which I think will keep the Cowboys off balance just enough to occasionally give way to some deep balls to Lee Evans who has blistering speed. Dallas' secondary can be burnt, and starting CB Anthony Henry who leads the NFL in interceptions is out with an ankle injury. That said, it is notable that this is the Bills' first Monday Night Football appearance in sixteen years, and Buffalo is usually a tough place to win, edge Bills.
Miami @ Houston. Maybe I am just pulling for the Texans because I picked them to be 8-8 or better this year, this game is a toss up, Dolphins desperate for a win and Houston needing to get back on track. Home field advantage, edge Texans.
Jacksonville @ Kansas City. Another toss up, but Damon Huard hasn't lost yet at home, edge Chiefs.
Carolina @ New Orleans. David Carr isn't a good QB, and this seems like the beginning of the end for the Panthers season to me with their defense no longer stifling. New Orleans had a week off to rethink their game plan, not having Deuce McAllister is going to hurt but they have enough weapons that if they put Drew Brees in shotgun formation (hint hint) they could run slant passes all day long, edge Saints.
NY Jets @ NY Giants. The Jets aren't that good, the Giants are playing better, edge Giants.
Seattle @ Pittsburgh. The Steelers will rebound at home vs the 'Hawks, mainly because Willie Parker won't be held to 37 yards rushing this week, edge Steelers.
Arizona @ St. Louis. This is a perfect let down game formula for the Cardinals, after the biggest win for this young team in years last week vs Pittsburgh, they have to come into a winless team's turf where they are desperate for a victory, and they just so happen to also be division rivals. Despite their pathetic offensive display this season, the Rams have made some adjustments in hopes of sparking something, anything. Gus Frerotte starts in place of Marc Bulger who has been playing with two broken ribs behind a decimated O-line, and head coach Scott Linehan wisely takes over offensive play calling for this sputtering team. The Cardinals are a team that can be burnt on the long ball and Gus can throw a pretty one. If I'm Linehan I start the first series with at least one long bomb and go from there. Yet, the Cards have been hungry for success for so long, they've tasted a little bit of what it feels like to be on a good team so it won't be easy to knock them back. Their defense is playing lights out and with the Rams having so many offensive linemen hurt, edge Cardinals.
Detroit @ Washington. I'm going with the Redskins on this one because they've had a week of rest and are playing at home, and Washington's defense should be physical enough to win, edge Redskins.
Atlanta @ Tennessee. The Titans defense is playing great and now they are well rested coming off a bye week, edge Titans.
Tampa Bay @ Indianapolis. Bucs are playing great but the Colts are rolling, edge Colts.
San Diego @ Denver. Both teams are looking to play better football, but the Bolts have LT and Denver can't stop the run, edge Chargers.
Baltimore @ San Francisco. I like the home team in this one too, even though SF's D is banged up they are feisty enough to cause headaches for the Ravens. Patrick Willis is a bad a$# ball hawk, and Trent Dilfer gets inspired against his old team, edge 49ers.
Chicago @ Green Bay. If the Bears can't rise up and beat the Lions last week, I don't see them regrouping enough to get their offense going against a stout green and gold D, edge Packers.
I didn't do so great last week, my worst week this year @ 7-7. I am proud of picking the Browns, Bills and Cardinals wins though. Cumulative record this year 42-20.
This is the third installment of my ongoing series Fantasy Hot List, to discuss the players that are not necessarily at the absolute top of most draft boards but could conceivably provide outstanding value for your fantasy football squad.
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